Air Force
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
46  Isaiah Bragg SR 31:30
111  Patrick Corona SO 31:54
164  Zach Perkins JR 32:08
207  Gavin Owens SR 32:13
280  Charles Perkins SR 32:28
312  Riley Coates JR 32:34
320  Elliot Myers JR 32:36
565  Dan Caddigan SO 33:07
785  Kyle Eller FR 33:31
2,083  Andrew Hood SO 35:28
2,650  Jake Hawkins SR 36:54
National Rank #25 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #5 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 85.7%
Most Likely Finish 23rd at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.7%
Top 10 at Nationals 7.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 41.4%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 59.0%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Isaiah Bragg Patrick Corona Zach Perkins Gavin Owens Charles Perkins Riley Coates Elliot Myers Dan Caddigan Kyle Eller Andrew Hood Jake Hawkins
28th Annual Rocky Mountain Shootout 09/28 1255 35:27
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 659 31:39 32:01 32:02 32:35 33:39 32:32 32:43 33:07 36:55
Mountain West Championships 11/01 632 31:23 32:04 32:17 32:56 32:45 32:22 32:26 33:09 33:31
Mountain Region Championships 11/15 530 31:35 31:46 32:03 32:09 32:09 32:34 32:27
NCAA Championship 11/23 508 31:29 31:47 32:15 31:52 32:08 32:59 32:54





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 85.7% 20.0 481 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.4 3.1 3.6 3.5 4.2 3.7 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.7 5.2 5.0 4.6 4.3 4.0 3.0 1.9 0.7
Region Championship 100% 5.3 155 0.3 2.2 16.4 40.1 30.6 9.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Isaiah Bragg 96.2% 45.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7
Patrick Corona 87.2% 97.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Zach Perkins 85.9% 132.0
Gavin Owens 85.7% 145.2
Charles Perkins 85.7% 180.3
Riley Coates 85.7% 190.7
Elliot Myers 85.7% 194.1


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Isaiah Bragg 12.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 3.1 4.3 4.2 6.1 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.1 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.5
Patrick Corona 24.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 2.3 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.4 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.8 3.2 3.9 3.2
Zach Perkins 32.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.6
Gavin Owens 36.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.7
Charles Perkins 47.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2
Riley Coates 50.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Elliot Myers 51.2 0.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.3% 100.0% 0.3 0.3 2
3 2.2% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 2.2 3
4 16.4% 99.3% 0.4 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.5 2.9 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.1 16.2 4
5 40.1% 94.8% 0.1 0.5 2.2 2.8 2.5 4.8 6.6 8.3 7.6 2.8 2.1 38.0 5
6 30.6% 78.7% 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.1 3.1 3.9 5.9 6.6 6.5 24.1 6
7 9.2% 51.2% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 2.1 4.5 4.7 7
8 0.8% 9.5% 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.1 8
9 0.3% 0.3 9
10 0.0% 0.0 10
11 0.0% 0.0 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 85.7% 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.6 4.0 5.4 6.2 10.0 13.3 15.6 15.9 11.7 14.3 0.3 85.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 1.0 0.2
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 1.0 0.0
Boise State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 4.0
Minimum 1.0
Maximum 9.0